This paper presents and compares two different methods using in the forecasting of wind power turbine (WPT) outputs. These two forecasting methods, which utilize different types of input to forecast the output of WPT, are the Meteorology Forecasting Method (MFM) and the Observational Forecasting Method (OFM). The MFM determines the unit output from the forecasted wind speed at the WPT installation site, using the input from a composite data set created from the original annual-hourly weather data. Three different techniques can be used in MFM to forecast the wind speed, and the best result is selected for conversion calculation of the output of WPT. OFM, however, forecasts the unit output based on five observed annual-hourly data obtained from the operation of target WPT. Two different techniques can be used in the OFM simulation. The results from these techniques for each method are compared and the best one will be used for the final forecast of the WPT outputs. This paper presents and compares the forecasting results of WPT output obtained from MFM and OFM. Furthermore, in order to increase the result precision and decrease the forecast error, a new composite data system is also developed and proposed.The methodologies proposed in this paper will be very useful for designers, planners and operators of the wind power turbines

According to safty of the important structures such as dams are vital. The Dorudzan dam is located in the seismotectonics province of Zagros. Due to high potential seismicity of the Zagros, design safety is vital. In this regard, we used Deterministic and probabilistic approaches for earthquake hazard analysis. Moreover, the seismotectonic characteristicsof Zagros determined carefully. Earthquake-fault hazard, both by probablisticand and Deterministic approaches were analyzed, and the PGA (maximum of vertical and horizontal accelerations) are presented. The results show low seismic hazard in the Dorudzan dam site based on data is presented in both ways.

The study of stress-strain behavior of high strength concrete confined by transverse reinforcement has been widely considered by various researchers. As a result, various stress-strain relationships regarding columns made of high strength concrete have been presented. Since each suggested model is based on a limited number of experimental data of a researcher, it has often a good prediction on its experimental results but not on other data. In this study, all available models and experimental data presented by other researchers in the field of strength and ductility of columns made of high strength concrete have been collected. Based on the results of these studies and applying Operations Research (OR), an appropriate model is suggested. It is shown that the proposed model in comparison with other models has a very good agreement with experimental results, by using Deterministic analysis.

Zoning and seismic hazard analysis is a powerful tool with useful and valuable information for decision-making. In this study, seismic zoning of Ardabil city on the seismic bedrock level was studied using Deterministic hazard analysis method, and fuzzy inference system. The purpose of earthquake hazard analysis is to estimate the strong ground motion parameters in a time period and in a specific site. In all steps of seismic hazard analysis, there are uncertainties that make inevitable use of appropriate methods in seismic hazard assessment. Fuzzy logic is known as a reliable method to evaluate seismic hazards with reliable results in a short time with a simple and flexible process. Iran is one of the most earthquake-prone countries in the world where cities severely suffered during this natural phenomenon. The city of Ardabil with the coordinates of 38.25 North and 48.30 East, is the center of Ardabil province and is located in the northwestern part of Iran. Due to its location among several important active faults with a background of numerous historical destructive earthquakes, its seismicity and hazard analysis seems to be necessary. For this purpose, all the active faults located within a radius of 150 km from the city center along with their seismic history were studied and 20 potential seismic sources were selected for seismic hazard analysis. In the present study, seismic hazard zoning analysis of the Ardabil city is first performed by the conventional Deterministic method by meshing the whole area under study with dimensions of 1000 × 1000 meters; then it is performed using the fuzzy inference system for the centers of each mesh, and the results are compared. In Deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA), 5 attenuation relationships were used to determine the peak ground acceleration (PGA) and the site-specific response spectrum for the center of each mesh. According to the results obtained by DSHA method, the value of horizontal PGA varies between 0.24g and 0.43g, while using the fuzzy inference system it varies between 0.25g and 0.43g. As a result, the maximum horizontal PGA in this area can be suggested about 0.43g. According to the results obtained from both methods, source No. 3, for which the Bozqoush fault is its main active fault, can be considered the main source potentially causing destructive earthquakes in the future compared to the other sources. Moreover, this source is located at a very close distance to Ardabil city. As well, in general, it can be concluded that the western parts of the city are more prone of sever earthquakes compared to the other parts of the city, and therefore, it is better to build important buildings and infrastructures in areas with lower PGA (eastern parts of the city) and encourage the politicians to urban development to this direction in the future. This study clearly confirms that new techniques such as fuzzy methods can be used to improve and develop the seismic hazards analysis.

This paper offers a method to use Deterministic attenuation relationships in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). For a given magnitude and epicentral distance, Deterministic attenuation relationships evaluate strong ground motion definitely, so analyzer must assume a standard deviation for the attenuation relationship in the PSHA. This study proposes a PSHA method which can apply the attenuation relationship without standard deviation. Required uncertainty for PSHA is obtained through the uncertainty in magnitude. Seismic source is modeled as a convex combination of three Gaussian distributions. The method is tested for Milad tower site and the results are in accordance with previous studies.

Results of traffic assignment models are the main output of transportation planning studies and decision making for future developments is based on these results. Therefore, accuracy of these models is very important. Despite the mentioned importance, comparing the models and their solving methods to estimate actual traffic volume and network performance measures is rarely considered in previous studies. The traffic assignment process has started from the simplest methods like All-or-Nothing, then it has developed using the rules and supplement assumptions such as Wardrop principles and finally it has evolved by concepts such as Fuzzy theory. Traffic assignment models can be categorized by various factors into several groups: Deterministic vs. stochastic, congestion considering vs. unconstrained capacity and being equilibrium or not. The main goal of this paper is a comparative and quantitative analysis of various traffic assignment methods to estimate the observed traffic volumes. In this regard, the main questions that this study seeks to answer is as follows: 1-Do the results of various traffic assignment methods have a significant difference in terms of overall network indices? 2-Is there a significant difference in the accuracy of traffic volume estimation in various traffic assignment methods? In this study various traffic assignment methods such as All-or-Nothing, Incremental, Stochastic, User Equilibrium, Stochastic User Equilibrium and System Optimum have been examined. To compare the results of traffic assignment methods, in addition to estimated link volumes, various performance measures such as vehicle-kilometers traveled, vehicle-hours traveled, fuel consumption and air pollutants emission are also used. In this regard the city of Qazvin is selected as a case study. This city has more than 400 thousands inhabitant, near 46 square kilometers area, 113 traffic analysis zone (TAZ) and its network has 2300 directional links and 1200 nodes. The results of applying these methods in Qazvin city network show that various traffic assignment methods based on User Equilibrium, despite different assumptions, have no significant difference in estimating the overall network performance measures as well as estimating traffic volume in links (correlation between estimated and actual link volumes using all of these models is approximately 0. 88). But the other methods, which do not consider equilibrium assumption and volume-delay functions, produce different results (correlation between estimated and actual link volumes using all of these models is approximately 0. 70). Although estimated link volumes in some of traffic assignment models are significantly different, overall network performance measures are approximately the same. In all of assignment models the differences between estimated and actual link volumes in average are high which are not negligible (approximately 20 percent). In addition to high average error in estimating link volumes, the distribution of these errors has significantly high standard deviation (approximately 20 percent). In spite of different and complicated assumptions, models and solving algorithms in various traffic assignment methods, on basis of Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) test results, the distribution of links volume estimation error is not significantly different. According to this fact, it seems that should be careful in using the results of traffic assignment models to compare and assess minor network improvement alternatives, such as changing conventional streets function to pedestrian streets, upgrading intersections to interchanges, cross section widening, traffic signals optimization and changing traffic direction in streets.